Stock market this week
Latest update: 01-08-2021 19:55
US Jobs Figure
Despite the fact that the daily ups and downs do increase, stock markets continue to do well. However, they remain money-flow-driven exchanges. Because economic figures are reasonable, but certainly not as good as expected. We see the same in the company figures.
Due to the Delta corona variant, the holiday plans went wrong for many. That budget came and still ends up on the stock exchanges.
This money flow can also be seen with cryptos. Still often the toy of the small investor. Those cryptos also soared last week.
Phasing out corona support
Now that corona measures and lockdowns will come to an end due to vaccination, corona support will also come to an end. I am not talking about central bank support. It will still remain.
However, governments are beginning to phase out their support. That support differed per country and the phasing out will also differ. In any case, more and more companies, self-employed entrepreneurs and the unemployed will have to manage with less or no government support in the coming months.
For example, on September 6, 7.5 million Americans will lose their support. The phasing out of that corona government support everywhere can take a considerable blow to the economy.
Only when all that corona government support has disappeared will we see where we really stand with the economy.
Just do it…..if you have the time
Most stock markets are at or near all time highs. That is reason for me to be very careful. Because an all time high usually ends in a top and a subsequent correction.
However, it can be read everywhere that it is no problem at all to buy at or near all time highs. Because in the end, stock markets always rise above those all-time highs. Well, I have to give them credit for that.
Because seen over the longer term, stock markets always rise. So maybe I'm just being too careful right now. After all, what could go wrong if you buy now? If you do know that stock markets are going to break through those current all time highs again.
There is, however, a very small caveat to be added. It may take a while. Well, in 2000, the AEX touched the 700. Now 20 years later, the AEX is at 754. Still a nice return of 8% (but only 0.4% on an annual basis).
Did those all time high buyers from 20 years ago get it right? I know. On average, you can also add a few percentages of dividend per year. But those first 10 years before the credit crisis/interest cut, you also got those percentages on a savings account.
No, those all time high buyers from 20 years ago have made very little progress. And then I just hope they always slept well.
Because in 2003 the AEX dropped to 250, in 2009 to 200 and last year to 400. Ah, now everything is different. Different times with completely different exchanges. Let that be exactly what they said 20 years ago.
All time highs brrrr I don't like it. Let me just buy after a big drop. I feel a lot better about it. Why would you buy for the highest price ever when you know that stock markets always make waves and lower prices come again.
So what do you prefer. Buy now at all time highs and maybe have to wait 20 years for a little return? Or just wait for a good moment to buy and then make the same return or more within a year? I choose the latter.
The gold and silver price
Rising inflation and central banks that continue to stimulate. You can not think of better for gold and silver. Gold and silver are in the starting blocks to rise significantly further. Waiting for the starting gun.
Since the beginning of this year, the fundamentals for gold and silver have improved considerably. Mainly due to high inflation. But gold and silver have lost some momentum this year after the excellent previous year.
Waiting for it to come back. That will certainly happen. Because that high inflation will not turn out to be temporary. A wage price spiral will ensure this. And that wage price spiral has already started.
More and more companies (and not just in the Netherlands) cannot get enough people. The solution is to offer a higher salary. And those higher costs are then passed on in the prices.
The weekly forecast for this week
The US jobs figure on Friday will be the most important. The earnings season is still running. What will also receive increasing attention is the US debt ceiling. The US government can no longer borrow extra money.
A solution will have to be found for this. However, the Republicans and Democrats are far from done.
I expect that unused holiday budgets can go to the stock markets again this week. That is a temporary effect that will probably pass in the course of next week.
Stock markets are still a good news show. Then, however, may start to change. Because all the good news (central banks, phasing out lockdowns, etc.) and all hopes of a rapidly improving economic growth have already been amply incorporated in the prices.
I wouldn't know where any more good news would come from. When all the good news dries up, any setbacks can get more attention.
Enter your email address:
I will mail you with each new market forecast or update.
The weekly forecast for the AEX
I think the big question is where the top will be. Because after a long rise and breaking all time highs, top formation always follows. Never before has a stock market continued to rise without a correction. And that won't happen this time either.
The budget in the form of unspent holiday budget is also available this week to raise the AEX a little higher. It does depend on the stock market news whether investors are also willing to buy.